I will use this page to do periodic updates. I will cover insights, and long-range outlooks and misc. things I don't have time on-air to talk about or which are too complex for radio.

DECEMBER 1ST

MY OFFICIAL WINTER FORECAST FOR GEORGIA:... Changeability, volatility and variability are the key watchwords for this winter. Due to the neutral ENSO state and contradictory signals confidence in this forecast is lower than normal. I think temps and precip., including snowfall, will be plus or minus 10% of average. Not good for the drought. I still see a "front-loaded, bookends" winter--coldest at the start, thaw in the middle, but a chill returns in early spring. A day of severe thunderstorms possible in Jan or Feb. The odds of snow look about normal. Chances for a major snowstorm however, look less than average. Odds of a significant ice storm on the other hand look greater than average. Key analog years are 1950, 55, 59, 66, 74, 85, 89 and 2000. There are a host of secondary analogs. Here are the National Maps of the outlook.

NOV. 30TH:Snow flurries are possible even in South Metro Atlanta Monday but no impact on roads if we do see some. Best chance I-20 North, best chance for accumulation on grassy areas etc North of a Rome to Toccoa Line, an inch or 2 possible in the higher elevations of the NE Ga Mountains. It will stay colder than normal for the coming week. Beyond that, more storm threats and see-saw temps.

NOV 28TH:...Some computer model winter forecasts: CFC temps near-normal and drier than normal. CAS warmer than normal precip normal to slight dry. UKMET cold and dry. ECMWF warm and dry. IRI warmer and drier than normal. HURRICANE season ends Sunday it was an active season with 16 named storms 4th most in history, 8 hurricanes 5th most in history, 5 major hurricanes, and for the FIRST TIME IN HISTORY 6 storms hit the USA. An inch or 2 snow possible in the NE GA Mountains Sun or Monday, flurries not out of the question in ATL Monday.

NOV 27th:...I guess all the other stations are jumping on my old man winter bandwagon now. Welcome aboard! There is now computer model consensus on the cold wave, and that it will eventually be cold enough for snow. But there is no consensus on IF it will snow, or if so, how much would fall. I do not currently see us getting a snow storm, but I would not be shocked by at least snow flurries or a snow shower somewhere in the late Sunday-Tuesday time frame even in Atlanta.

NOV 21ST:...One problem with most of the free point and click forecasts you can get on the internet on your computer or telephone or other handheld device is they are automated roboforecasts not the forecast of an actual meteorologist who can adjust the raw computer output, that is why phantom snow pops up in the 7-10 day forecast from now through winter just to disappear hours later or the next day then it shows up again. Dont waste your time, these free weather sites are worth every penny. Still looks like much below normal temps for GA Dec 4-Dec 10, cold enough to keep an eye out for any moisture that may come along. Stay tuned.

NOV 21ST: COLD WAVE WINTER ALERT DELTA FOXTROT TANGO THIS IS NOT A DRILL... POTENTIAL for some of the coldest early December weather in at least 5-8 years if not 20 years!! One model Dec 3rd ATL high of just 34 and a dusting of snow. NOT A LOCK YET BUT NO sustainable warmth in sight the next 3 weeks even if it doesn't go to the extreme. Potential for wintry weather in parts of the Southern USA growing by Dec 5th. At least more models and actual measured data are showing a favorable PATTERN in the atmosphere that is January-like and could include a storm system. This is your 3rd exclusive alert on this at this site from WSB-AM as I've been dropping hints on the radio and in my blog, so stay tuned for more.

NOV 20th: Have not been posting much as I had a family emergency and I am working on the winter forecast. Meanwhile looks like the post from Nov 8 sure worked out well. It still looks like the average of the next 30 days is for below-norm temps but it looks like something is brewing and the weatherman says somethings on the move. Lyrics from the music group Jethro Tull and Storm Watch album. Looks like the last week of this month and first week of next month the weather gets interesting, see-saw temps and storm systems. A risk of severe weather and a flake. Final winter forecast on the radio early December.

NOV 8TH: Stormier more active weather pattern across the country the rest of this month will spell a step-down temp pattern to much colder for Georgia between now and Thanksgiving week, signs of a cold December also. November is one of our mini-severe weather months along with Jan/Feb that fall outside the primary spring severe weather season.

NOV 6TH: Hurricane season way above the normal average of 10, Tropical Storm Paloma forms East of Honduras heading toward Cayman Islands and Cuba expected to reach at least CAT II status. 30-90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR GEORGIA temps and precip near-average.

OCT 31ST: Indian Summer for Atlanta. Interesting weather signs around the world. 4th coldest Oct on Record in Fairbanks AK, early snow in Alaska, coldest start to winter in Fairbanks in 16 years. Record lows in Florida, rare snow in South America, historic snow in Northern Spain, first October snow in London in 70 years!

OCT 28TH: MY PRELIMINARY WINTER OUTLOOK FOR ATLANTA... early indications point to a "front-loaded, bookends winter"... cold start, cold end warm in the middle...coldest relative to normal the first part of winter rather than the second part, a delayed Spring possible, odds of a solidly warm winter look small. Taken as a whole Dec.-Feb look more or less normal or near-average with a slight tilt toward slightly cool and slightly dry, with snowfall half an inch below average. Beware "near-normal" as nature sometimes tries to regress to the mean by way of wild swings which increases the chance of extremes along the way for volatility this winter. By the numbers... TEMPS -0.17 degrees F. PRECIP. -0.46 inches or around 95% of normal. Snowfall 1.5 inches. INPUT: ENSO neutral, sunspot minimum, negative PDO, positive AMO, neutral NAO, negative PNA, weak La Nina possible, second year Nina, active Gulf-centered hurricane season, negative QBO, Pacific and Atlantic ocean temp patterns, ENSO indices, Summer weather pattern, early season global snow cover, October temp pattern in USA, global atmospheric angular momentum, stratospheric trends above North Pole, Southern Hemisphere winter behavior (our Summer). These yield a series of analog years from the past that were similar and assumes the ensuing weather this winter will progress in a like manner as the average of those past years. I should point out that while I was almost dead on in my prediction last winter, I doubt I will be this time. Because this year there are contradictory indications, and at least as of now, there is NO strong signal of what is to come for the low sun season. IF that changes in November, for example if a LA NINA or EL NINO starts or appears more likely this will alter my outlook. But for now my preliminary winter outlook has LOW CONFIDENCE. My final official winter forecast will be issued on the radio in early December.

OCT 26TH: A real accordion temp pattern between now and Nov 8th including first freeze for some areas Wed./Thur. then moderating temps in early November before the next cold snap. Next 10 days average dry and below normal in temp then mostly dry but with above normal temps the following 5 days. A secondary Southern Jet Stream storm track is indicated to form by model consensus for the early weeks of November and this could lead to a spell of above-normal rainfall in about 15 days or so. Global trends continue to point to a stormy winter in the USA. Hear my FIRST LOOK at winter in Atlanta this Tuesday Oct 28th at 6:20 and 7:20 A.M. ONLY on News Talk 750 WSB.

OCT 19TH: The quiet weather will not last-- more active weather pattern, more wet and more cold maybe including strong thunderstorms followed by frost and freeze expected in the period between October 23rd and November 4th. Listen for my first look at THE COMING WINTER IN GEORGIA on the radio on Atlantas Morning News 5a-8:30a Tuesday Oct 28th.

OCT 10TH: Now that Summer is over I can grade my Summer forecast which called for a near-normal Summer, and it might be the best Summer forecast I've issued since I started doing them on WSB, a B+/A minus. June-August temps were just +0.7F warmer than normal and rainfall was only 14% below normal. Much less extreme than the previous Summer. JUNE was +3F warmer than normal and 84% drier than average. JULY was -0.2F cooler than normal and 40% wetter than normal. AUGUST was -0.7 cooler than normal and +2% wetter than normal. While the consensus of everyone else was we were in for a replay of last years brutal hot and dry, I said it would be much closer to normal and not even in the same ballpark as last Summer. And that is exactly the way it played out with one wet and cool month, one slightly wet/cool month, and only one hot and dry month, and NONE of those weeks of tripple digit temps. Now, back to the future MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST: The next 15 days looks like temps and rainfall will average out near-normal with a warm spell and weak cold snap in the mix. First big snowstorm of the season for the Rockies this weekend. Caribbean and/or Gulf tropical development possible next week.

SEPT. 22nd: Tropical development or a Nor'Easter possible later this week with possible hit by weekend or so anywhere from SC Northward. The 60 DAY OUTLOOK for Georgia calls for temps to average near-normal with rainfall above-normal.

Sept 19th: Tropics should perk up again by early October if not before. A "Quick look" at THE COMING WINTER IN GEORGIA...one degree cooler than normal with precipitation 75-95% of normal (average of Dec. Jan. Feb.) Current analog years are 1976, 1985, 1989, 1996, 2000 and 2005. I'll have updates as research continues. I currently expect an ENSO neutral to weak El Nino winter. A preliminary winter outlook will be out early November. My official winter forecast usually comes out in early December.

SEPT. 5: Updates on tropical weather available on-air. I am going on vacation, something planned long ago. The station requires that I give them all my vacation weeks for the year ahead-- in January. Plus, many months are blacked out for broadcast reasons, meaning I cant take a vaction during those times. So I am forced to take most of my vacation in concentrated doses in just a few months of the year, not my choice. Thanks for understanding the way radio works.

HANNA...expected to reach land around or North of Wilmington NC Saturday as a strong TS or weak HUR (no-skill intensity forecast), but its a large storm so the affects will still at least brush the GA Coast with tropical storm force winds as far inland as Raleigh and Richmond on the way to New Jersey. IKE...heads into the Bahamas Sunday-Tuesday, after that all points are on the table. TPC shows it SE of Miami 2pm Tue with 126 MPH winds (no skill intensity forecast) large track errors exist at 5 days. I favor an eventual path somewhere up the East Coast on or off shore crawling from South FL to the Carolinas next week, but can't rule out entry into the Gulf. I think IKE will weaken before or as it reaches the USA, assuming it ever does. JOESEPHINE too far away to worry about.

Sept 3rd: I first warned August 23rd that there would be a hurricane threat to the SE or Gulf by the end of the month at the latest and maybe 2 threats. Statistically Savannah is long overdue for a big direct hit. But direct hits from Jacksonville FL to Savannah are rare. There have only been 3 direct hits on Savannah in the last 107 years! The last bad one was 1940 and before that in 1824 and 1898. A weak storm in 1947 was seeded with dry ice by a B-17 as part of a weather modification program called project cirrus. The last storm to hit in the Greater Savannah area was a weak David in 1979. Hugo brushed the area in 1989. So as I've been saying for several days now, based on history and climatology I expect HANNA would hit either FL or more likely, closer to NC than Georgia. With IKE and Josephine and maybe Kyle out there the expected MJO burst is active. Hurricane season peaks September 10th and is cut in half by October 15th. After we get through the current string of tropical systems, things should calm down until next month. ADVISORY UPDATE ON HANNA: I would advise everyone to calm down and keep your powder dry on Hanna for now, don't be complacent but neither panic nor hype are called for (hype never is, but reporters and anchors often feed it), Hanna is a weak and struggling for her life entity. The steering mechanisms (multiple) are so complex, that the intensity forecast is lower confidence than normal, which is low to begin with, and track confidence is average until it establishes definitive movement. But there is now considerable model consensus on a track somewhere around Wilmington-Cape Fear NC Saturday. The NO-SKILL intensity forecast is a minimal hurricane but that could could change. I think we should wait to see if Hanna can bulk up and decide a definite direction of movement before getting worked up about the current outlook. The models keep shifting the track farther to the North following what I've been saying all along. Minimal impact on GA unless something big changes. I also would NOT write off Hanna either.

SEPT 1 8pm: HURRICANE HANNA.... The little to no skill intensity models show it becoming an 80-105 MPH hurricane by Thursday Night. As for a HANNA track, the consensus forecast is toward South of Savannah GA sometime Friday as a CAT 1 or 2 98 MPH, but this would be a vary rare path. Charleston or even farther North is the way I lean for now. The track spread in the Global equations is high and all areas from Daytona Beach FL (if not all of FLA) to Cape Hatteras NC are at risk. POTENTIAL HURRICANE IKE...the Canadian and European models suggest this could be a threat to the Caribbean in 6 days and the Gulf in 10 days. JOSEPHINE also looks to form and another possible behind that. I will not concentrate on IKE or the other systems for now and mostly update on Hanna.

August 31st: 8pm GUSTAV: outer rain bands and thunderstorms hitting the Gulf Coast now, tropical storm conditions to increase overnight. New Orleans looks to escape the worst, the worst will impact a relatively small area of South Central LA. The computer model track guidance is in good agreement past 48 hours with a landfall South of Houma in Terrebone, Lafourche and St. Mary Parishes BUT THEN they spread out indicating slower forward motion and a variety of directions, including back SW or a fall apart and stall scenario over LA and TX becoming a remnant low in 120 hours with flooding Tuesday and Wednesday., BUT confidence is moderate to high for a Central LA strike. We should not be surprised if the eye strikes land as far East as New Orleans or as far West as Western Louisiana. The GFDL and LBAR models have performed the best so far. I expect Gustav to remain a major hurricane when it hits shore Monday between 9am tomorrow morning and 1pm as a CAT 3 storm sustained winds of 115-127 MPH near the eye around Lafourche Parish, St Mary Parish and Terrebonne Parish South of Houma then the eye will head just South of or over Morgan City LA by Monday evening on its way across Lafayette LA. Hurricane force wind gusts may extend as far as Mobile Bay AL. Tropical storm force winds are possible as far West as Port Arthur TX and as far East as Pensacola FL. If the slow down onshore occurs as forecast, some places could have hurricane conditions for up to 8 hours. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I am going to emphasize the LACK OF SKILL in forecasting intensity, in the end game Gustav may strike as a CAT 2 or 1 storm or a 4. The info here is based on the not so certain assumption the official forecast of a 3 is right. Hurricane winds are expected along the entire coastline of AL, MS, LA. Gustav will have an extremely dangerous storm surge of 10-20 feet (based on storm surge and SLOSH model output) and battering waves near and just East of where the 30 mile wide eye hits land--so from at least around Terrebonne Parish to to MS including Houma, Grand Isle, St Mary and New Iberia Parishes and SW as well as Gulfport, Biloxi and possibly New Orleans. The latest storm surge model shows storm surge in New Orleans to NOT be enough to breach the levees if the model is correct in predicting a surge more like a CAT 3 storm. If the storm surge here is that of a CAT 3 or weaker, and the Army Corps is right that the levees can take a CAT 3 surge, then the levees should hold. If it is stronger than forecast, the levees will likely breach in spots. But with the daytime models shifting GUSTAV a little more West again, it looks like New Orleans may only get a Cat 3 or 2 level surge. Also, if Gustav is in a weakening phase as it goes inland, both the wind and storm surge will be less than normal for a CAT 3 storm. Gustav is similar to BETSY in 1965 which caused a billion dollars in damage (10 billion today's dollars), breached the levees and killed 76 people in LA. Gustav looks a cross between Betsy, Rita and Katrina. If the track shifts East 60-90 miles Gustav will be at least as bad as Betsy and Katrina. Remember, there is little to no skill in intensity forecasting so it could be much stronger or much weaker. But at this time cooler waters, upwelling, and greater wind shear ahead of Gustav prior to landfall and some dry air are expected to prevent Gustav from being any more powerful than a CAT 3 which is still bad enough to overwhelm New Orleans IF it comes close enough, even if New Orleans is spared the worst as expected, other areas will not be. The current forecast is for devastation 75 miles inland and 75 miles wide where homes and businesses and industrial buildings will be destroyed or heavily damaged, mobile homes gone, trees flattened, electricity and water lost for days or weeks along the eye path. 6-12 inches of rain with some 20 inch totals and isolated tornadoes are also expected from AL to SE TX. The flooding in LA and East TX is expected to shift into AR later in the week but may stay in TX. The cone of uncertainty for where the eye hits runs from Eastern MS to Port Lavaca TX. Tropical storm conditions are expected as far East as the FL Pan Handle and West to Houston. Hurricane force winds extend out 65 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend out almost 220 miles from the eye. Tropical storm force winds at landfall are forecast to extend out 360 miles from the eye, making it only 20% smaller in diameter than Katrina if correct. Tropical storm conditions should commence on the LA coast tonight and New Orleans after Midnight. Hurricane conditions will reach the coast of LA tomorrow morning and possibly even New Orleans late morning. While LA is currently expected to take the brunt of the storm, interests from the Western FL Pan Handle to the Upper TX coast should monitor for any last minute change in direction of Gustav. Your not safe until you know your safe. GAS UP the car before markets reopen Tuesday. Oil and Natural Gas production to take big hit with Gustav, plus speculation fears of Hanna and possible IKE and others to come. Extensive damage and extended downtime to rigs in the Gulf and refineries on land with repairs needed, and even pipes to shore at risk. POOR LA has been clocked worse than any other state in the past 5 decades, with NC #2 and FL #3. If you have not been reading my posts daily since last week, you missed a lot and should read previous posts for some things I am not repeating that are still relevant. I try to update twice a day.HANNA cant spend too much time here, but as of now the range for Hanna is anywhere from South FL to NC as a CAT 1, but confidence in path and strength is LOW. There is a potential IKE behind Hanna, but lets get past Gustav before we worry to much about Hanna or Ike.

August 30 2pm: The official NHC forecast track has edged slightly more toward the TX/LA border, something I've been saying since Wednesday morning when others were saying New Orleans. But there's every reason to expect future projections could change in any direction. The margin of error for landfall runs from MS to Baffin Bay TX. It is still possible the eye will not move inland on LA but turn West along the coast as its forward motion is forecast to slow down considerably. This would increase the flooding threat to South LA and SE TX. The storm could ramp up to a 5 but is currently forecast to weaken to a Cat 4 or 3 before the center makes landfall on the Central or Western coast of LA Tuesday, but the storm affects will start to impact the Gulf Coast on Monday, baring any changes in speed or direction. A CAT 3 storm IF close enough can still overwhelm New Orleans like Betsy in 1965. I think once we see how Gustav navigates the area between Cuba and the Yucatan of Mexico the models will stablize and forecast confidence on the track will go up by tomorrow. As of now New Orleans is still NOT expected to get a direct hit, but is expecting tropical storm force winds and 9 inches or more rain. New Orleans is still a below sea-level bowl and the new CAT 3 rated levees are untested. Expect serious impact from the storm as far inland as Northern LA and adjacent states, with severe impact as far as Central LA and adjacent states, and extreme impact for the Southern Third of LA and maybe SE TX. Again, forecast wind shear, cooler waters ahead, a slowing down and westward bend of path, and upwelling of cooler water just off shore all could lead to a weakening hurricane at landfall and as detailed in previous posts the life cycle phase at landfall has implications. At any given category 1-5, a weakening storm has less impact than normal, a growing storm has more. Think of it as the difference between a baseball bater taking something off at contact vs. following through with the whole body including a snap of the wrist. As of this mornings data Gustav is forecast to strike land from Caillou Bay LA to West of Morgan City to Vermillion Bay LA (near 92 degrees West) 3am to 8am Tuesday. Places getting hurricane force winds include Cameron Parish, Grand Isle, Morgan City, New Iberia, Houma, Lafayette and adjacent areas. A storm surge of 13-18 feet with large battering waves and tornadoes are expected near and East of where the eye hits. Impacts from Gustav will start on the Gulf Coast as early as Monday. The current forecast could be a worst case scenario for Central LA to SE TX. Katrina was on a wost-case trajectory for New Orleans at ANY strength, Gustav currently is NOT. But I dont mean to downplay the threat to New Orleans for serious to severe impact which is still real. As of now, Gustav is expected to be 20% smaller in SIZE as Katrina. It still looks to have major disruptive impact and possible damage to the Oil and Natural Gas industry in the Gulf and along the coast. It is pointless to focus too much on the line track forecast and eyelandfall, as the storm is over 300 miles across. Atlanta could feels some side-effects from Gustav next week, depending on the final track and strength of Gus. Even is Gustav spares New Orleans the worst, a new threat of a hit by Hanna is still on the board. Read the earlier posts for info I have left out of this post which are still relevant. On HANNA... expected to become a hurricane but to do loops and or stalls, so its a non-issue for the USA the next 4 days, but residents from FL to VA and even the Eastern Half of the Gulf Coast should monitor its progress as all bets are off with this storm due to computer model mayhem. Some models strike Hanna in South FLA Thursday as a CAT 3 and the FL Pan Handle Friday or Saturday, but it could just as easy be East FL or SC-VA. As if this were not all bad enough, a strong tropical wave just off Africa is proged by some models to become a TS or HUR (IKE) and reach the USA Coast around or after Sept 9th either South FLA or the Carolinas. GAS up your car by Tuesday, Monday is a market day off, but these 3 storms will probably lead to oil price specualtion that will spike gasoline prices. While the Atlantic is active the Pacific is near record quiet with no tropical cyclones at his point for only the second time in 40 years-1980.

August 28th: As of 5pm Thursday Gustav is fighting mid-level dry air, wind shear, and the Islands of the Caribbean preventing intensification. If it stays away from land, it could reach CAT II status Friday, otherwise it will be weaker. I expect it to reach the SE Gulf off the West tip of Cuba by Sunday night. If in this position, it could then intensify over the 83-88 degree water (to a depth of 2,000 feet in the Loop Current) to a Cat 3 or 4 storm. Virtually all available intensity model guidance, dynamic and statistical, indicate Gustav will eventually become a major class dangerous hurricane. Models are in good agreement on the path upto the Yucatan channel West of Cuba, but diverge after that both in forward speed and path. So there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the predicted track from Sunday onward. The latest models give a window from the FL Pan Handle all the way to Mexico, but Mexico is less likely. It looks like it will be very disruptive of Oil and Natural Gas production in the Gulf with damage to rigs and/or refineries possible depending on strength and location at landfall. It also matters if the storm is getting stronger or weakening at landfall as surface winds can be less than the listed Category if it is weakening as it reaches land. I think the track models will come into better agreement in a couple days. Remember, intensity forecasts are poor and the track error grows with time, reaching an average of 300 miles in 5 days with about a 33% chance of an even larger error. Therefore, much of Mexico and the U.S. still has an equal threat this far out. But the model consensus puts the highest threat from AL to the TX/LA border. Whatever strength and where ever it ends up in the USA if ever, would not be until Monday or Tuesday at the earliest. Being that far out, while landfall on the USA seems likely, it could rapidly intensify even to a Cat 4 or 5 but then weaken to a 2 or less before striking. NOAA Hunter aircraft are dropping 60 data bouys in the Gulf to help the forecast. Gustav is forecast to have tropical storm force winds out to 75 miles from the center-- a small to moderate sized storm, compared to Katrina which had those winds out 200 miles from the core. I know everyone is concerned about New Orleans. Another direct hit there this soon would defy the law of averages (but nature can has and will somtimes do that), as statistics there show the average interval between hits is 12.5 years. For a CAT 3 like Katrina (2005) its 31 years, CAT 4 65 years, a CAT 5 170 years. The average length of time between any point on the map being brushed by the outskirts of a hurricane is once every 3.8 years. The 5pm official NHC (TPC) forecast is for landfall between 2pm Monday and 2pm Tuesday SE of HOUMA LA SW of PORT SULPHUR LA as a CAT 3 with sustained winds of 115 mph. Guess what, it looks like Gustavs sister Hanna could threaten FL or the East Coast sometime next week as a hurricane. Be sure and read my previous two blogs for info I haven't repeated in this post.

August 27th5pm: Gustav is still expected to become a hurricane again, and reach at least a category 2 as it heads into the South and Central Gulf. But some of the models show a slow down or even stall, which has 3 big implications. One, that it may not strike the U.S. until the middle of next week, and two, that we can't know how strong it will be if and when it hits land because the slower speed can first help it intensify, but then give it time to weaken again for a variety of reasons. So just because it is expected to reach CAT 2 or 3 and maybe higher in the days ahead, that does NOT guarantee it will be the same strength when it hits land, since we dont yet have a likely scenario of when that would be! The 3rd implication of a slower movement and path is a longer period of time for disruption of oil and natural gas production in the Gulf, even if they are not severely damaged, just because of the evacuation time and down production time waiting to get the storm out of the way. We get about 25% of U.S. crude and 15% of U.S. nat gas comes from this area. The past 3 official track forecasts have varied a little from Central LA to Eastern LA Monday or Tuesday. The offical intensity forecasts, which have a poor track record, now predicts a peak at 115 MPH with gusts to 138 MPH, a median of the various model output. They point out there is still much uncertainty, and it is too early to tell what if any impact Gustav will have and where it will have it. Their latest cone of uncertainty includes Cancun and Cozumel Mexico and the West Coast of Florida all the way to NE Texas. I would still include MOST of the TX coast all the way through the FL Pan Handle. The model choices include into the Southern Yukatan or up the East Coast of FL offshore. I reject those outlier models, but that still leaves most of the Mexican and U.S. Gulf Coast open for business. I still lean toward a track closer to TX than FL but with low confidence. Thursday the hurricane hunter aircraft will drop 20 special expendable data bouys into the gulf to measure water temps to help with intensity forecasts. See my previous post below for more.

August 27th: 5am: Hurricane GUSTAV figures to become a dangerous CAT 3 or higher hurricane into the Southern Gulf/NW Caribbean Sunday and Monday. The model forecasts vary from a CAT 3 to CAT 5 from a 111 to a 160 MPH storm. However, the intensity will depend on its interaction with the storm-killing Island Mountains of the Caribbean and the storm-high-octane fuel of the Loop Current and warm Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Eddies that have high heat energy content for explosive growth like Charley in 04, and Rita and Katrina in 05. But remember there is little to no skill for strength forecasts beyond 48 hours, and only slight skill in shorter time frames. The NHC forecast is for a 121 MPH storm with gusts to 144. The models have better agreement than earlier in a W/NW track but the future track is still uncertain, with the various equations split between a track up toward Southeast FLA or a West track into Central America. The outliers of the far West and East look least likely. But a track anywhere from the FL Pan Handle to somewhere in Mexico is still on the table Monday or Tuesday. The current hurricane center forecast splits the difference sending the center to the Central Gulf of Mexico South of LA Monday, with the "cone of uncertainty" from near the West Coast of FL to halfway to Mexico/TX . Remember, 2/3rds of the time the cone of uncertainty accurately captures the margin of error, leaving one-third of the time that it does not--meaning 1/3 of the time we can expect the actual path to be OUTSIDE of the "cone of uncertainty". Right now I favor a path of the center more toward the Upper TX Coast Monday or Tuesday, but with just average confidence in my track. By the way, the European ECMWF shows another hurricane (Hanna) hitting FLA/GA from the MIA-FT. Lauderdale area the end of next week! I'll do 2 updates a day as time allows.

August 24th: FAY tropical depression stalls out weakening to remant low may finally bring beneficial rain (too much?) to North Georgia including Lake Lanier basin during the next 2-5 days. Still watching for GUSTAV to form as I first warned you Friday morning on Atlantas Morning News might happen the next threat to the SE USA, East Coast more likely but Gulf is possible. ACTIVE tropics next 3 weeks.

August 23rd: FAY still a threat even as SOME GLOBAL PREDICITON EQUATIONS (UKMET, ECMWF, CMC, NOGAPS) SHOW MAJOR HURRICANE off the SE USA NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME, (however, none of the tropical waves in the Atlantic show any signs of this for now, but the pattern looks favorable in general the next 3 weeks!), ALSO SOME COMPUTERS SUGGEST REMNANTS OF FAY COULD BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN TO NW GEORGIA AND ATL MON-WED I HAVE MY DOUBTS BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT......FAY center went ashore at Cape Romano FL early Tuesday morning and has caused at least 8 tornado reports and has produced measured wind gusts of 67-78mph TS FAY will bring more flooding rain and gusty winds to FL with isolated tornados possible. I expect FAY to bend back West across Northern FLA including the Pan Handle Fri./Sat into AL/MS Tue./Wed. eventually weakening to a depression rain storm as it heads NW then NE. An upper level low over TX and the MS Valley should eventually steer the remnant moisture NE toward the TN Valley with just insignificant side effects for ATL unless something changes, better chance it gives us better rain next week. There's a 60% chance it gets back into the Gulf of Mexico by Sat., if that happened it would have to be watched for re-strengthening. There are computer indications the next hurricane threat to the SE Coast or Gulf Coast could come by the end of this month at the latest, maybe 2 threats between now and then. The last CAT 1 storm to hit NE FL was Dora in 1964. Savannah is statistically long-overdue for a hit. The last hur direct hit in SAV was 1947 (storm was seeded with dry ice by a B-17 as part of experiment) and before that 1940 and prior to that 1898. As far as strength keep in mind, the meteorological community as a whole (and our computer simulations) has/have little or no skill at forecasting hurricane or tropical storm intensity changes, that is if they will get stronger or weaker, and if so, how fast and how much they will weaken or get stronger. Impact FAY will have on Atlanta is little, but Extreme South/SW GA and the Coast could see flooding with gusty winds, rough surf, beach errosion and rip currents for the GA/SC/FL Coast. My vacation was canceled so I can cover the future of FAY. A CAT II or stronger hit on JAX FL by the way is a once in 400 year event.

New research published in NATURE forecasts a temporary cooling for Europe and North America over the next decade caused by a change in Atlantic and Tropical Pacific Ocean Currents projected to blunt the present warming or even lead to slightly cooler air temps for about 10 years according to a new computer model run by the Leibniz Institue of Marine Sciences in Germany.

AUGUST 12th: Last August weeks of mid and upper 90s and a string of 100s, that will not happen this year! The tropics come alive the next 4 weeks with the latest MJO moving East and tropical waves moving West. At least 2 or 3 threats of a tropical storm or hurricane anywhere East of the MS River maybe as early as this weekend and next week.

August 4th: Not the brutal hot summer as bad or worse than last year that so many others predicted. SO FAR anyway, the Summer is playing out like my long-range forecast which said this Summer would NOT be even close to last year but would be closer to normal. Using Hartsfield JUNE was hot and dry 3F above-normal with just 16% of normal rainfall. JULY was slightly cooler and wetter than average. -0.2F below-normal with rainfall 40% above-normal. MY 30-DAY OUTLOOK calls for above-normal temps with rainfall near-average to a little above-average. After the current heat wave, relief is in the outlook between August 9th and 17th.

JULY 17TH: RANDOM NOTES from the AMS DENVER CONFERENCE...the following are quotes from professional presentors at the conference: a good site on climate change www.aip.org/history/climate. 53% of AMS seal holding members disagree with the AMS Climate Statement. 78% of those blame urbanization. From 1950 to the present there has been an 8.2 million increase in the U.S. population adding to the impact of expected 50 year weather extremes. 40% of our $10 trillion economy is affected by climate and weather events annually and the weather variablility can produce year to year swings in the nations economy of plus or minus 100 billion. Weather forecast services save U.S. agriculture alone $820 million a year. Climate models are verified against the past and current climate to give real-world testing down to the season. Projections for the future are run with and without the fingerprint of human activity, with and without changes in the sun and volcanoes inorder to see the signals of each and all. Due to uncertainty projections give a range of future outcomes not just a single sky is falling projection or everything will be ok projection. There are differing levels of confidence in various ranges. Half of all CO2 emissions have taken place since 1983, 75% since 1961. It takes 1000s of years for CO2 to leave the atmosphere naturally. Even some former skeptics now believe in GW. Scientists who believe in man-made global warming do NOT believe they have all the answers or understand everything. The "Al Gore" sea level rises are NUTS, and the gulf stream is not going to suddenly stop or reverse, though it could change over the next 50,000 years, the projected sea level rise of scientists is over the course of 100 years about 12 inches. Model projections of Arctic sea ice at the end of the century range from near zero ice to little change. There is not an "even split" among scientists on global warming, there is a worldwide consensus not a sharp divide. The latest IPCC used 72% new scientists who were not in previous reports-- from 130 countries and 800 authors using 15 different GCMs Global Circulation Models which are upgraded every 5 years. The data used is a synergy of different types and platforms of climate data, not weather observations affected by instrument site problems like the urban heat island, multiple methods and labs worldwide give confidence in the data. We've had reliable data on the suns solar irradiance only since 1979. The suns variability in sunspot cycle accounts for less than a tenth of a degree and 0.1% in solar output, the question of the sun in global warming is covered in chapter 2 of the IPPC. The U.S. National Security Agency NSA and the Pentagon now accept the IPCC findings. The its a hoax/scam crowd is NUTS. There has been a 1 degree F rise in ocean temps and 4% increase in water vapor in the air. There is now 40 times more precipitation globally, when it rains or snows it does so harder. Climate does change over time and if its slow enough can sometimes be adapted to...in the 1800s orange trees were common in SC, Southern AL and South GA due to natural climate change they're gone now. The affect of urbanization is responsible for just .06 degree C of observed global warming. There has been a recent 18 month global cooling in conjuntion with the LA Nina event. More than half of the U.S. population now lives in a coastal community increasing our vulnerability. Precipitation reduces voter turnout one-half to 1%. The first routine tornado warnings started in 1960. The false alarm ratio for tornadoes on doppler radar is almost 80%, thats the bad news. BUT the good news is the detection rate is just over 70%. Hurricane track forecast errors half been cut in half since 1990! But we still stink at forecasting intensity, no progress has been made. OVER warning in coastal areas is now a necessity because development has lead to population intensity evacuation times which exceed forecast accuracy. Where a hurricane warning is in effect, it means hurricane winds are expected WITHIN the warning area NOT everywhere in the warning. The typical hur watch is 490 miles long, a warning 417 miles long. At any point, such as your condo in a watch the probability of hurricane winds is 20% in a warning its 25% or 1 out of 4. In the "cone of error" for a forecast hurricane track the odds are equal at any given point within the margin of error.

JULY 10TH: Transitions in weather. We are now losing a minute or so of sunlight each day as the days grow shorter on our slow but steady slide to winter. Tornado season is behind us til the smaller season in November. Most of the severe weather (widespread damage) season is behind us. This is because the "dynamics" and "kinematics" associated with the Jet Stream are lacking as the Jet Stream retreats Northward toward Canada, leaving us without the "wind shear" "vorticity" and "helicity" that generate tornados and "supercell" thunderstorms. With weak steering winds aloft storms tend to be stationary or move slowly. Now most wind storm damage from thunderstoms will be neighborhood sized instead of multi-county or county-wide. Now lightning, small hail and gully-washer rain from tropical moisture ladden slow moving cells (street flooding or small creeks) is the main feature of pop-up storms. As we get into August, storms tend to be at a max after dark, and feature lots of lightning and flash flooding due to slow or no movement of cells. Then the thunderstorm season turns quieter in September with cooler showers, leading to the dry sunshine and changing leaves of October. Thanks to the drought even our heat waves the last 2 summers have been dry heat. Our current steamy tropical air has been the highest humidity in a couple Summers! The storms of recent days have been mostly "Air-Mass" diurnal thunderstorms-- driven by solar insolation. The suns energy working on the humidity. Heat and humidity lead to a "potentially unstable air mass" at the end of the day with a "steep lapse rate" (fall in temp with increasing height), the thermodynamics cause "pulse-type" severe storms--they pulsate or go severe in bursts lasting just 15-30 minutes (sometimes going from light shower to bad storm in just 5-10 minutes) then they die away only to pulse up again somewhere else. This is par for the course in a "normal" Atlanta Summer, a typical Southern Summer weather pattern. Most of them are NOT really severe, eventhough the National Weather Service may issue a warning to cover their butts, AND because of antiquated hail guidelines--so they OVERWARN. Most of the storms only produce penny sized or smaller hail and winds less than 50MPH---enough to break tree limbs and loosen a shingle or blow around light unsecured objects-- but thats it. Waiting for the "convective temp" to be reached (time and temp of this varys day to day) thats the air temp required for "a parcel of air" to achieve "positive bouyancy" and rise up through the troposphere. Sometimes when the updraft is strong enough or the storm collapses at the end of its life cycle-- we get a "wet microburst" from "precipitation loading". The heavy gush of rain creates a heavy load of downward gushing air. When its subdivision size its a microburst, when it covers a whole county or multiple counties its a macroburst. Feeding off solar heating they fade away a few hours after dark. The probability of such a storm forming SOMEWHERE in the area can be 70-90% likely, but the areal coverage maybe only 20-40% of the Metro region, (and the area affected by damaging winds maybe only 5%), they form (mostly but not only) at random--disorganized convection-- hence the terms pop-up, hit n miss, popcorn, isolated to scattered, widely spaced, here and there, widely seperated, come and go-- to describe them. Our recent storms featured 6 lightning strikes every minute, total lightning flashes of almost 4,000 per hour, with storm tops to 43,000 feet high. If you can hear thunder you are in danger of being struck. ALL thunderstorms pose a threat to life and property. Light and lightning travel faster and farther than sound like thunder, so you can be struck without hearing thunder or be struck by a bolt from the blue. Lightning is one of natures number one killers. Engineering studies have shown it usually takes one inch diameter-- quarter to golf-ball in size or larger to really cause damage to cars and home roofs. Even non-severe thunderstorms contain dangerous and destructive lightning. It's what causes thunder-- the rapid expansion and contraction of super-heated air over 43,000 degrees F. Its why we also call them electrical storms. That, and because they can cause a loss of electricity. You can NOT have thunder without lightning, lightning equals thunder and thunder equals lightning ALWAYS. When thunder roars, go indoors. There are 100,000 storms in the U.S. each year producing 20 million lightning strikes a year. Your odds of being struck are 1:700,000. Yet lightning kills and injures people on a par with tornadoes each year. The typical lightning electrical channel is only the width of a pencil!! Lightning can strike over 10 miles away from the parent storm--farther than the sound of thunder can travel. You can estimate the distance of a flash from you by counting the seconds until the thunder and dividing by 5. If you hear thunder go indoors and dont go back outside until 30 minutes after the last thunder is heard. Lightning has and does strike the same place twice. There is no such thing as "heat lightning". Its just normal lighting too far away for you to see the bolt or hear the thunder. Almost 80% of lightning stays within the clouds or moves from cloud to cloud. 95% of lightning strikes are negative charges and average over 30,000 amps or 125-160 million volts of electricity. Enough to ligt a 100-watt light bulb non-stop for over 3 months. The typical bolt is 5 times hotter than the surface of the sun or 54,000 degrees F. For each bolt that strikes the ground about 200,000 pounds of rain are formed. Only 5% of lightning strikes have a positive charge but they are the most destructive because its electric field is stronger, its flash duration longer and its peak charge greater--as much as 300,000 amps and 1 billion volts. It is these more rare positive charges that cause most of the fires and power outages, they are more destructive and more lethal. Positive lightning usually consists of just one stroke, negative flashes typically contain two or more strokes. Lightning does not just come down from the cloud, a strike consists of a bolt from the ground going up to meet the incoming downward moving bolt from the sky. Of those who die from lightning...98% were outside--50% near or in water or under a tree...89% are male, 30% between the age of 20 and 25. Most people are not hit by a direct strike but by indirect side strikes or current traveling through the ground or other objects. A person hit by lightning does not stay or remain "electric" they are safe to touch for medical care. Most people are not killed by lightning but are just stuned, and often suffer life-long physical and/or mental disabilities.

JUNE 30TH: Just got back from the 36th Annual Conference on Broadcast Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society. 5 days of weather seminars including a day long tour of the NOAA/NIST and NCAR/UCAR Research Laboratory centers and Space Weather Prediction Center. Had three sessions with 5 leading experts on climate change and global warming with debate Q+A, two public and one private one on one. Took an all day course on Dual-Polarization Radar---the next "big thing" in doppler radar. There are exciting advances in precipitation detection and precip type diagnostics in our future. Speaking of radar... At the conference I had the chance to talk with Robert Baron, President and Owner of Baron Weather Services and the Baron Tornado Index. His radar can be seen on different stations across the country including my home town of Chicago. I think its a very fine radar system and a great TOOL in the right hands. Mr Baron told me face to face, that a high BTI is no guarantee there is a tornado, and that you can NOT use any part of HIS radar to pin-point a tornado on the ground at street-level or any level, or say there is one for certain, and that it does NOT show a tornado on the ground. He agreed no companys radar can do that nor can the governments. In fact, Baron Services gave a formal presentation to the AMS attendees, and they said the BTI is EXPERIMENTAL, and has not gone through the peer-review process as of yet, no scientific papers have been published to verify it. A BTI of 7 on a scale of 1-10 might be a false alarm, a 7 equals a tornado less than 50% of the time, but a BTI of 9 or higher has a strong probability of being a tornadic storm, a tornado has occured with a BTI as low as 4. A higher BTI does NOT mean a bigger or stronger tornado IF there is one. I spoke with another radar expert at the conference who helped develop Doppler radar and detection systems from the start, and he confirmed for me-- in person that we can NOT point to ANY radar and say here is a tornado on the ground.

JUNE 16: Summer officially begins June 20th but the heat goes away the next 10 days. However, another big heat wave is expected for the last week of the month. The 90-day outlook for Georgia calls for near-average temps and rainfall.

JUNE 8: This winter and spring were much better than the winter and spring heading into last Summer. This Spring March-May was fractionaly cooler at -0.3F than normal with rainfall of 11.2 inches compared to the normal of 13, so we had 85% of normal rainfall, down just 15% from the 30 year average. This beats the much drier Spring last year, BUT this is nowhere near enough to end the drought, we have NOT recovered from the deficit last year, and this year we are ADDING to the rain deficit, even normal Summer rain will mean Georgia stays in a drought, of which there are 3 types: meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological. You start with the first and if it lasts it leads to the second and if it continues you end up in the last type, which continues even after the first two end, and it often requires months or years of normal or above normal rain to pull out of the hydrological (water resources) drought. By the way this heat wave may have your thinking back to last Summer, but you may have forgotten that much of last Summer was just normal in temp, it was not until August that extreme heat showed up! And as of now there is NO reason to think this level of heat will continue from now to September.

JUNE 5:Tropics quiet down, no longer a concern. NONE of the computer models show any development next 10 days. 100 degree high temps outside of the ATL next 5 days.

June 1st: Today marks the start of the Atlantic hurricane season and "meteorological summer" June-August, and right on que Atlanta has some real summertime weather for the next 10-15 days. We also have to keep a sharp eye on the remnants of Arthur which could regenerate and threaten the Gulf Coast by next weekend, not good news for Oil prices, but could aid drought relief in parts of the SE USA.

May 30th The severe weather season is peaking now and the number and intensity of severe storms in Atlanta normally declines steadily at a good pace from here through Summer. This MAY has seen the greatest number of tornadoes in the nation in any single month since 1950 with 480, typical of LA NINA. The last very active months were June of 1992 and May of 2003. A taste of Summer weather on the way to Georgia the next 10 days or so.

May 28th: Tropical trouble brewing? Signs that the hurricane season may get going early or right on time with something worth watching in the NW Caribbean-SW Gulf this weekend or beyond. Stay tuned.

May 22nd: My SUMMER OUTLOOK FOR GEORGIA...temps near-average to slightly cooler than normal with rainfall near-average to slightly above-normal. My PRELIMINARY HURRICANE season outlook 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major with 3 hits on the USA. #1 target Carolinas northward, #2 South and East FLA, #3 Gulf Coast. My outlooks are based on winter to May weather and ocean temp patterns in the Atlantic and the expectation of neutral to weak La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean this Summer. If the Pacific signal turns out different than I expect or some new development overwhelms the ENSO signal then these outlooks will fail. Some of the analog years I am using include 1985, 1989, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2003 amoung others and they suggest a cooler and wetter Summer than my outlook because I have adjusted for decadal trends and initial dry soils.

MAY 24th: 2008 first time in a decade to hit 100 tornado deaths in the nation and only the 3rd time in 30 years with that many, 60% of deaths in mobile homes or cars/trucks. If you are a weather hobbyist or fan and want to help the National Weather Service gather rainfall data, go to their web site and signup for the cocorahs program.

MAY 12: "Gustnadoes" with the "Dehrecho" target Georgia and South Metro Atlanta Sunday Morning. Nobody else will probably be this specific and precise in telling you what it was, but whoop there it is. I am sure the newspapers won't cover it, nor TV, so I thought I should mention it. We covered it today on Atlantas Morning News. You can google the terms or go to the Storm Pediction Center website to read more.

More changeable weather for the month of May, more temp swings to come. Bad news for the price of everything, as the corn and soybean planting is way behind schedule due to bad weather in the Midwest and it looks like more stormy and cold weather this month. USDA reports only 28% of the corn crop is in compared to a normal 76% by now.

April 17th: The very early look at the coming Summer in Georgia indicates close to normal or average temps and rainfall, with a slight tilt toward slightly cooler and wetter. Even an average or normal Summer will not help us get out of the drought in soil moisture, river flow and lake levels. But it's obviously better than a hot and dry outlook. But it's early and later outlooks could change. My PRELIMINARY HURRICANE forecast is lower than most experts: 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 4 of those major Cat 3 or higher. I estimate 2 tropical storms and 2 hurricanes will strike the USA. I do not yet have an estimate as to where. I have not seen anyone demonstrate skill in predicting where storms will make landfall in seasonal forecasts. Also note, that April hurricane outlooks have LOW skill. The June updates are much better.

April 13: Our latest taste of winter was first mentioned in my blog March 26th with changes made on the 2nd and April 8th. Reluctant springs are a comon feature of La Nina. After the cold snap a 10-15 day warm spell will ensue. Last year The Masters had record cold on the final day. We know what kind of Summer followed. This year the cold wave is just a few days later. Record lows are occuring in April in Georgia the last 30 years about 3 times the normal pace of the last 125 years. Average would be one record low every 4 years. So in the last 3 decades that would mean about 8 records, instead Augusta has seen 20 record lows in April. There is a consensus that the current La Nina, though weakening, will last the Summer and maybe even into next winter.

April 8: Wow, if first glance at the GFS is right, the next 10 days will be wild, including a major cold snap and a need to watch for flakes.

April 2nd: I no longer see the big cold snap coming, I'll let you know if I see it again, there may yet be a last one this month, but the next 15 days look to average warmer than normal, despite some swings. Still looks like another month of improvement in the drought. The date of the average last freeze in Atlanta is April 5th.

March 26: More good news for the drought. Its largely gone in South GA and South AL, FLA Pan Handle, so less need for our lake water. My long-term outlook is also good news for the drought. The weather AVERAGE over the next 60 Days in Georgia looks average in temps and precip. But beware of near-nomal, for often nature will get to average by swinging back and forth between above and below for days or a week. It does look like another big cold snap brewing after April 5th-ish. A hard freeze and flakes could both be seen again. I think around or after Tax Day the pattern of the past 4-5 months begins to shift toward a more stable warmer drier pattern, with May featuring less severe weather and above-normal temps and near-average to slightly above-average rainfall following Aprils slight cool/wet bias. The EARLY LINE on Summer in North Georgia is for temps a little warmer than average and rainfall near-normal to a bit above. This is all based largely on my analysis that the LA NINA will be moderate for Spring and weak for Summer. This will have to be monitored and updated as needed.

March 22: Looks like volitle temp pattern continues thru first week of April.

March 21st: NWS survey team adds Butts county EF0 tornado to Saturdays count, bringing Metro total to 2. See their website for details.

March 18th: Some wild things are being depicted by some of the computer models for early next week. It bears watching. I'd say more but I dont want to hype something when the various models are all over the place. I'll write more as soon as I can discern what, if anything, its going to be.

MARCH 17TH: TORNADO SEASON IS HERE, lasts into June. The general weather pattern across the country of the past 4 months looks to continue into the first week or two of April. Active storms and big temp swings. There is a storm sequence in the jet stream pipeline shown in sat imagery from the mountains of Russia/Asia to the USA. So we are not out of the woods from a hard freeze yet. And expect more strong storms and volitile temp changes...one Wed/Thur of this week and again somewhere in the March 22-25th range, and more to come heading through the early days of April. The NWS says there were only 2 tornadoes in Metro Atlanta Saturday, an EF2 tracked thru Polk, FLoyd and Bartow and an EF0 in Butts. It's on their website if you don't believe me. Doppler radars do not see tornadoes, they detect rotations that can indicate them. We can only confirm a tornado on the ground with an eyewitness, not with radar, of after the fact with a pro storm survey team. You should still listen to the warnings and safety advice and heed the weather bulletins issued by the weather service. It is a myth that tornadoes don't hit downtowns or that major city areas are less at risk for tornadoes. It only seems that way because more of the country is rural and suburban than city. If we were populated the other way around, there would be a myth that rural areas are less likely to be hit. Salt Lake City, Dallas, Fort Worth, Jacksonville, Oklahoma City, Saint Louis, Nashville, Miami, and New York are just some of the major cities hit by twisters. Rivers, lakes, hills, and mountains do not protect against tornadoes either, just another myth. On the Friday Night tornado last week and the week before I give a BIG HATS OFF to the Atlanta National Weather Service in Peachtree City for issuing timely warnings in a situation where storms developed quickly out of the blue, and without any prior tornado watch. Great work! It is unfortunately quite normal for there to be only short warning of a tornado. In this case without the alertness and vigilance of the NWS there would have been no warning. I congratulate them on doing all that can be expected given the state of the science and the fickle nature of twisters. The reason there was no watch issued in both cases was because the atmospheric setup in both cases was too marginal to justify a watch. Indeed the storms that popped up on that first Friday night only affected a very small percentage of the metro area. Storm coverage the Friday night of the downtown tornado was also a small percentage of the Atlanta area. Watches were issued Saturday when the coverage of severe storms was much greater. But here's a major point... WHAT IF there had been a tornado watch issued the typical 2-4 hours before the first warning? The Georgia Dome still would have been full of basketball fans. Why? Because people don't do what they're supposed to until they feel imminently and personally in danger by the weather. And what if they were told of the warning, would they stampede in panic causing injury and death? Would they run outside into the teeth of the storm to be hit by debris? Is there a safe place for 10,000 fans elsewhere in the Dome? Saturday for example, BEFORE any tornado warnings, a Tornado Watch WAS in effect. But the highways were packed like the forecast was partly sunny. And the malls and movie theaters were packed as well. (two of the worst places to be in a tornado, along with gymnasiums or big box stores) And the airplanes at Hartsfield were full of people sitting on the runways and taxiways like sitting ducks even as the storms were moving toward the airport. A watch means conditions are favorable and storms may develop with little or no warning. A watch does not mean go shopping, to the movies, or to the ball game or carry on with life as usual!! Scroll down if you want to learn about a "worst-case" scenario for a tornado in Atlanta. I posted this research a year ago. In short, a violent tornado on the ground in the heart of Atlanta could mean THOUSANDS of deaths and THOUSANDS of injuries and 20-40 BILLION dollars damage.

March 15: Now that the data is in for the past 3 months I can grade my winter forecast for North Georgia issued Dec 1. I get an A+ for the temp forecast and an A for the precip forecast, but a C+/D- for the snowfall forecast. At Hartsfield the winter was 2 degrees warmer than average exactly as predicted. Precip was 8% below average. I was off by just 10%. Snow was below normal as forecast, but was more than I expected. A trace of snow fell in Dec., 1.2 inches in Jan., and a trace in Feb and March. I was also right about 80 degrees and severe weather in winter, both happened. The forecast was issued Dec 1st.

November 4th: Not just dry Summers, but winters in North Georgia when we get much of our annual rainfall have also been dry. In the last decade of the 1990s 3 winters were wet and 7 were drier than normal and so far since 2000 3 wet and 6 dry winters! See what LA NINA does to weather on average in maps below.

October 22ND: DROUGHT gets no respect as a weather emergency compared to tornadoes and hurricanes because it is a SLOW MOTION disaster. But if the authorities in charge had been doing their jobs, it would be no surprise--something we suddenly must do something about. It should not have sneaked up on anyone. Since 1950 only 30% of years have been wet, 70% of all years were normal or drier than normal. That's right, not just Summer, but entire years. Since 1990 almost half of all 68 SEASONS (3 month periods) were dry. Since 1960 51% of our Summers have been dry. The last decade to have wet Summers